Bitcoin‘s spectacular descent is flashing warning signs that extend far beyond cryptocurrency markets, according to Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone. In recent public remarks, McGlone revealed that the digital asset’s collapse could be an early indicator of broader stock market turbulence heading into year-end.
What’s particularly alarming about this analysis isn’t just Bitcoin’s price action—though that’s dramatic enough. It’s the pattern McGlone identifies across multiple asset classes that suggests we’re watching a bursting bubble unfold in real time.
The Bubble Signal Getting Louder
McGlone’s concerns crystallized following several key developments: President Trump’s election victory, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs, and the subsequent market euphoria throughout this year. According to his analysis during a media appearance, Bitcoin is now signaling that the stock market could follow a similar downward trajectory before the year ends.
The numbers tell a stark story. Since 2008, the S&P 500 has only recorded two down years, and in each instance, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio collapsed dramatically. That same ratio is breaking down hard right now, raising red flags about what’s ahead.
What makes this moment particularly significant is the environment in which Bitcoin’s decline is occurring. Gold has surged 55% this year, beating virtually every other asset class. Meanwhile, crude oil—the world’s most critical industrial commodity—has collapsed 20%. McGlone characterizes this divergence bluntly: “That’s a global recessionary trajectory.”
Technical Breakdown Reveals Bear Market Reality
The technical picture for Bitcoin has deteriorated rapidly. The cryptocurrency has posted lower lows for 11 consecutive trading sessions—a record streak that underscores the severity of selling pressure. But McGlone emphasizes a crucial point about analyzing Bitcoin: there’s no underlying fundamental value to anchor analysis. It’s purely a number on a screen, which makes technical indicators all the more critical.
As of his latest assessment, Bitcoin had become significantly oversold for a bear market environment. The asset dropped to around $80,000 at one point before stabilizing near $84,000—a key pivot level McGlone has been monitoring. He acknowledged that oversold conditions often produce the strongest rallies in bear markets, suggesting Bitcoin could potentially bounce back toward $100,000.
But here’s the critical distinction: McGlone believes Bitcoin has “flipped the switch to a bear market” and will continue trending lower despite any near-term bounces. Looking at the RSI (Relative Strength Index) function, Bitcoin recently recorded a reading of 22—anything below 30 indicates oversold conditions. The cryptocurrency has broken through both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, confirming the bearish technical setup.
The $70,000 Level That Matters Most
When pressed about key technical levels, McGlone identified $70,000 as the ultimate support zone to watch. This price point carries double significance: it marked the high when Bitcoin ETFs first launched, and it represented the low just before President Trump’s election victory. If that level fails to hold, McGlone suggests Bitcoin could eventually test much lower prices.
The more immediate concern centers on the $84,000 level where Bitcoin has been consolidating. McGlone noted in his analysis that this area could provide temporary support, but he remains skeptical about sustainability. The fundamental question driving his bearish outlook: what catalyst exists to reverse this trend?
The Cryptocurrency Contagion Problem
Bitcoin’s troubles aren’t isolated—the entire digital asset ecosystem is experiencing simultaneous stress. McGlone makes a pointed observation about market structure: Bitcoin may have been the first cryptocurrency launched in 2009, but millions of these digital tokens now exist. That represents unlimited supply, and markets are finally reckoning with that reality.
The example of Dogecoin illustrates his point vividly. Originally launched as a joke with no underlying purpose or value proposition, Dogecoin reached a market capitalization near $60 billion at its peak. It has since fallen to approximately $21 billion. McGlone’s assessment? “It should be worthless.”
Examining the cryptocurrency monitor function reveals a sea of red across the market, with Ethereum, Tether, XRP and other major tokens all experiencing sharp declines alongside Bitcoin. This broad-based selling pressure suggests the entire speculative cryptocurrency complex needs what McGlone calls “a purge”—similar to what happened during the dot-com bubble burst.
Stock Market Volatility: The Missing Piece
One of the most intriguing aspects of McGlone’s analysis involves what’s not happening in traditional markets—yet. Stock market volatility remains extraordinarily low even as Bitcoin crashes. This disconnect troubles him significantly.
The pattern he’s identified suggests that Bitcoin often leads, and equities follow. He points to a specific recent example: October 10th marked the moment when “everybody learned the tide is going out” for Bitcoin. Could November 20th represent a similar turning point for the stock market? On that day, Nvidia posted strong earnings yet saw its stock decline anyway—a classic sign that market sentiment may be shifting.
McGlone has been monitoring the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio for years, and its recent breakdown has accelerated. With stock market volatility still suppressed, he worries about dominoes beginning to fall. The cryptocurrency space thrived during a period when U.S. stock markets were generating massive wealth. Now, as risk appetite diminishes, the speculative froth is evaporating—starting with the most speculative assets first.
What Comes Next for Investors
For traders and investors trying to navigate these conditions, McGlone’s framework offers several considerations. First, the current oversold technical readings suggest short-term trading opportunities may emerge. Some traders have even looked at leveraged Bitcoin vehicles like MicroStrategy stock after significant declines, betting on a technical bounce.
However, McGlone draws a clear distinction between trading rebounds and investing for appreciation. He believes any rallies should be viewed as opportunities for “responsive sellers” rather than entry points for long-term positions. The 200-day moving average has rolled over for both Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, confirming the trend reversal.
The broader market implications extend beyond cryptocurrency. If McGlone’s analysis proves correct and Bitcoin’s collapse signals an approaching stock market correction, traditional investors need to reconsider portfolio positioning heading into year-end. The combination of extremely low volatility, extended valuations, and deteriorating leadership from speculative assets historically precedes periods of market stress.
The Year-End Risk Assessment
As we approach the final weeks of the year, several factors amplify the potential for market turbulence. Bitcoin’s technical breakdown is occurring against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty. The massive outperformance of gold relative to risk assets signals that investors are quietly repositioning for protection rather than growth.
The collapse in crude oil prices adds another layer of concern. Energy markets often provide early signals about global economic activity, and a 20% decline suggests weakening demand expectations. When combined with Bitcoin’s crash and gold’s surge, the asset class signals are painting a coherent picture of risk-off positioning.
McGlone’s key ratio—Bitcoin to gold—captures this dynamic perfectly. That ratio has “broken down hard,” as he describes it, and there are structural reasons to expect the breakdown to continue. Stock market volatility remains the lagging indicator in this scenario, but historically, it doesn’t stay suppressed forever.
Beyond Bitcoin: The Purge Ahead
Perhaps the most sobering aspect of McGlone’s analysis concerns the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. The space has experienced tremendous speculation and capital inflows, creating valuations disconnected from any fundamental value proposition. This can’t persist indefinitely.
The reality that millions of cryptocurrency tokens now exist fundamentally undermines scarcity arguments that once supported Bitcoin’s value proposition. If digital tokens can be created infinitely, the “digital gold” narrative breaks down. McGlone believes the market is finally recognizing this uncomfortable truth.
What’s needed, in his view, is comprehensive de-risking across the entire crypto complex. Just as the dot-com bubble required a purge of companies with no viable business models, the cryptocurrency space needs similar rationalization. Tokens launched as jokes shouldn’t maintain multi-billion dollar valuations. Projects without real utility or adoption don’t deserve significant capital allocations.
This process won’t be quick or painless. Bear markets in speculative assets tend to be extended and brutal, grinding down prices through multiple failed rally attempts. McGlone’s expectation that Bitcoin could ultimately test $70,000 or lower reflects this reality. Until speculative excess gets wrung out completely, sustainable recovery becomes difficult.
What This Means for Your Portfolio
For everyday investors, McGlone’s warnings carry practical implications. First, recognize that cryptocurrency’s correlation with risk appetite means positions in digital assets don’t provide the diversification many assumed. When risk assets sell off broadly, Bitcoin tends to amplify the move rather than provide protection.
Second, pay attention to the signals from gold and crude oil. These established commodity markets are telling a story about global economic expectations, and that story doesn’t align with the optimism still present in equity valuations. The divergence between gold’s strength and oil’s weakness particularly stands out as historically unusual.
Third, prepare for volatility to return. Extended periods of low volatility rarely persist indefinitely. When volatility expansion occurs, it typically happens quickly and violently. Having appropriate risk management in place—whether through position sizing, stop losses, or portfolio hedges—becomes critical during such transitions.
Finally, resist the temptation to “buy the dip” reflexively in speculative assets. Bear markets produce the strongest rallies, as McGlone notes, but those rallies are designed to shake out weak hands and trap new buyers before the next leg down. Understanding the difference between a trading bounce and a trend reversal requires patience and discipline.
The Bottom Line
Mike McGlone’s analysis presents a sobering assessment of current market conditions. Bitcoin’s technical breakdown, occurring alongside gold’s surge and crude oil’s collapse, paints a picture of deteriorating risk appetite and potential economic weakness ahead.
The key question facing investors: will Bitcoin’s crash remain confined to cryptocurrency markets, or does it represent the early stage of broader risk asset repricing? McGlone clearly believes the latter scenario carries higher probability, particularly given historically low stock market volatility and extended valuations.
As year-end approaches, the warning signs are flashing bright red. Whether markets heed those warnings or continue their complacent advance will likely determine 2025’s trajectory. For now, Bitcoin’s message seems clear—and according to McGlone’s analysis, traditional markets would be wise to listen.