Bloomberg‘s recent analysis of third-quarter 13F filings reveals significant shifts in how major investors are navigating the technology sector rally, with Peter Thiel‘s Thiel Macro making headlines by completely exiting its Nvidia position during Q3 2024.
Tech Bubble Fears? Hedge Funds Make Defensive Moves Despite Rally
According to Bloomberg’s examination of 909 hedge fund 13F filings—mandatory disclosures required by the SEC for anyone investing over $100 million—technology stocks maintain the most significant weighting across institutional portfolios. The sector leads positioning ahead of financials, healthcare, and consumer discretionary holdings.
What’s particularly noteworthy about these filings is the timing. The third quarter saw continuous upward momentum in the Nasdaq, yet institutional investors were making notable adjustments throughout July, August, and September. This suggests sophisticated money managers were already questioning the sustainability of the tech rally even as it continued to power higher.
The pattern emerging from this data shows investors caught between participating in a powerful trend and managing risk in a sector that’s generated significant bubble concerns.
Nvidia Attracts $11 Billion in New Money—Yet Thiel Walks Away
Bloomberg’s analysis identified clear winners and losers among individual names during Q3, with a striking pattern: both categories were dominated by technology stocks.
The biggest gainers in institutional holdings:
- Nvidia led the pack, up $11 billion in new institutional investment
- Alphabet captured significant inflows as the second-largest gainer
- Apple rounded out the top three despite some high-profile reductions
The notable decliners:
- Carvana experienced a brutal August, with shares plummeting 21% in a single day following a disappointing earnings report
- Other tech names saw reductions as funds reassessed valuations
What this really indicates is that institutional investors aren’t abandoning technology—they’re becoming increasingly selective. The smart money is differentiating between tech winners and questioning specific names that may have run too far.
Buffett’s Calculated Gamble: All-In on Alphabet, Backing Away from Apple
Two legendary investors made particularly noteworthy adjustments that highlight the complex positioning dynamic:
Warren Buffett‘s Berkshire Hathaway executed a mixed strategy in mega-cap tech. Buffett significantly increased his position in Alphabet while simultaneously reducing the fund’s enormous Apple holdings. This stop-start pattern suggests even Buffett—known for concentrated, long-term holdings—is actively managing exposure rather than passively riding the rally.
Peter Thiel’s Thiel Macro made the most dramatic move by completely exiting its entire Nvidia holding during the third quarter. This stands out as particularly significant given Nvidia’s status as the poster child for the AI boom and its extraordinary performance throughout 2024. For a fund associated with one of Silicon Valley’s most successful tech investors to completely eliminate exposure raises questions about valuation concerns at current levels.
The Real Story: Even Winners Are Hedging Their Bets
Looking at these institutional moves reveals a fascinating tension in the market. Technology stocks have been on an undeniable roll, powered by artificial intelligence enthusiasm and strong earnings from key players. Yet sophisticated investors are simultaneously building positions, trimming holdings, and in some cases completely exiting—all within the same sector.
This isn’t the behavior of investors with strong conviction in a sustainable trend. Instead, it suggests funds are trying to balance FOMO (fear of missing out) against valuation risk. The data shows managers participating in the rally while keeping one hand on the exit door.
The fact that both the biggest winners and biggest losers in institutional flows came from technology underscores how stock-specific this market has become. The blanket approach to technology investing has reached its expiration date. This market has become a high-stakes game of separating tomorrow’s winners from today’s overpriced darlings—and one wrong bet could be devastating.
Is Thiel Early or Just Plain Wrong?
These 13F filings provide a snapshot of positioning as of September 30, 2024. Since then, markets have continued to evolve, making these moves either prescient or premature depending on how the fourth quarter played out.
What’s certain is that as we move forward, institutional positioning will continue to reflect this push-pull dynamic between opportunity and risk. The key question for investors watching these moves: Are funds like Thiel Macro early in recognizing an overextended rally, or are they leaving returns on the table by stepping aside too soon?
For retail investors, the takeaway isn’t to blindly follow these moves—13F filings are backward-looking by nature. Rather, it’s understanding that even the smart money is grappling with the same valuation questions and market uncertainties that everyone faces. The difference is in how they’re managing risk through selective positioning rather than all-in or all-out approaches.
The coming quarters will reveal whether these cautious adjustments were wise risk management or costly hesitation in a continuing rally.